Executive Overview
The global economic and political landscape on February 3, 2026, has been defined by a historic "Trade Deal Rally" in India, contrasted by extreme domestic political gridlock and a complex rotation in U.S. technology sectors. A landmark agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has fundamentally recalibrated global trade expectations, leading to a record-breaking surge in Indian equity markets and a technical rebound in the precious metals complex.
However, the domestic front in India remains volatile, with the mass suspension of members of Parliament and intensified leadership struggles in Maharashtra. In Eastern Europe, energy infrastructure remains at a critical survival threshold as extreme sub-zero temperatures persist.
Historic Trade Deal:
The India-US trade compact represents the most significant bilateral economic realignment in decades, with tariffs reduced to 18% and India ceasing Russian oil procurement in exchange for unprecedented market access.
The India–U.S. Trade Compact: A Strategic Energy and Tariff Realignment
Historic Agreement Finalized
On the evening of February 2, 2026, a comprehensive trade agreement was finalized between India and the United States, representing the most significant shift in bilateral relations in decades. The deal effectively resolves a period of high uncertainty and trade friction.
Key Pillars of the Agreement
Tariff Reciprocity:
The United States has agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. This is a sharp reduction from the 25% previously in place and significantly lower than the 50% that had been feared by market analysts.
Strategic Energy Pivot:
In a major geopolitical move, India has committed to ceasing its procurement of Russian oil. This pivot is a central component of the deal, aligning India with U.S. energy interests in exchange for market access.
Manufacturing Access:
India has agreed to significantly lower both tariff and non-tariff barriers on American products, in some cases reducing them to near zero.
The agreement is viewed as a decisive win for India's export-oriented sectors—including textiles, aquaculture, gems and jewelry, and specialty chemicals—as it removes a massive overhang on global trade competitiveness.
Indian Equity Markets: Record-Breaking Wealth Creation
Strongest Rally in Nine Months
Buoyed by the trade deal, the Indian stock market delivered one of its strongest single-day performances on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, erasing the anxiety of the recent post-budget sell-off. The benchmark indices recorded their strongest single-day gains in nine months, with massive participation from both foreign (FII) and domestic (DII) institutional investors.
| Index / Metric | Feb 2 Close | Feb 3 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex | 81,666.46 | 83,739.13 | +2,072.67 | +2.54% |
| NSE Nifty 50 | 25,088.40 | 25,727.55 | +639.15 | +2.55% |
| Intraday High (Sensex) | — | 85,871.73 | +4,205.27 | +5.14% |
| Investor Wealth Gain | — | ₹12.1 Lakh Cr | +₹12.1T | Single-Day Record |
Sectoral Outperformers
The rally was widespread, with all sectoral indices ending in the green. The Nifty Realty index led the surge, advancing over 4%.
Adani Group:
- Adani Enterprises jumped 10.38%
- Adani Ports soared 9.12%
- Driven by strong quarterly earnings and trade deal announcement
Export Heavyweights:
- Aarti Industries rallied 14.34% after reporting 189% YoY profit rise
Manufacturing & Tech:
- Reliance Industries provided heavyweight support
- Power Grid and Mahindra & Mahindra led the charge
Foreign Institutional Investors:
FIIs were net buyers of shares worth over ₹5,200 crore on Tuesday, signaling a major return of foreign capital to the Indian market.
Parliamentary Turbulence: Suspensions and the Memoir Row
Market Euphoria vs. Political Chaos
The euphoria in the markets stood in stark contrast to the chaos in the Indian Parliament on February 3. The Lok Sabha was adjourned repeatedly before eight Opposition MPs were suspended for "disorderly conduct".
The Suspension of 8 MPs
The Lok Sabha suspended eight members, including Manickam Tagore, Hibi Eden, Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, and Gurjeet Aujla, for throwing papers at the Chair and creating a ruckus. The Opposition was protesting the government's refusal to allow Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi to speak on issues ranging from national security to the India-U.S. trade deal.
The "Four Stars of Destiny" Controversy
A primary flashpoint for the disruptions was a reference by the Opposition to the unpublished memoir of former Army Chief M.M. Naravane, titled Four Stars of Destiny.
The Conflict:
Rahul Gandhi attempted to quote the memoir regarding the 2020 India-China conflict, prompting strong objections from Home Minister Amit Shah and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh.
The Ruling:
The government argued that only formally published material could be quoted in the House. Gandhi claimed to have "authenticated" the article, but his remarks were repeatedly interrupted.
Maharashtra Politics: Portfolio Induction and Succession Struggles
Sunetra Pawar's Portfolio Allocation
The political landscape in Maharashtra continues to evolve following the death of Deputy CM Ajit Pawar. While his wife, Sunetra Pawar, was sworn in on January 31, her administrative responsibilities were clarified as of February 3.
Portfolio Assignment:
Sunetra Pawar has been assigned three key portfolios:
- State Excise
- Sports and Youth Welfare
- Minority Development and Auqaf
Finance Portfolio:
Notably, the crucial Finance and Planning portfolios, which were previously held by Ajit Pawar, have remained with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who will present the upcoming state budget.
Factional Dynamics and the "Piyush Goyal Faux Pas"
The potential merger between the two NCP factions has hit a "roadblock". While Sharad Pawar claimed a reunion was Ajit Pawar's last wish, some leaders within the Ajit Pawar-led NCP have officially denied these reports.
Goyal's Statement:
Union Minister Piyush Goyal triggered a "minor tremor" by erroneously stating that Praful Patel had been appointed NCP's National President.
The Retraction:
Goyal later retracted the statement, explaining he had been "misled" by incorrect information and confirming that the party remains under the leadership of Sunetra Pawar.
Global Financial Markets: Bullion Rebound and U.S. Tech Rotation
Precious Metals Recovery
Global markets on February 3 were characterized by a sharp recovery in precious metals and a "risk recalibration" in U.S. technology stocks. Gold and silver staged a substantial recovery from the historic 30% collapse seen late last week.
Spot Gold:
- Rebounded to ~$4,837/oz
- MCX gold rose 3.55%
- Near ₹1,49,101 per 10g in India
Spot Silver:
- Jumped 12-14% globally
- Trading near $82.74
- Indian retail: ₹2,99,900/kg
- After 35% cumulative decline
U.S. Equity Trends
In contrast to the broad rally in India, U.S. markets turned volatile on Tuesday as investors rotated out of high-growth technology sectors.
Benchmark Indices:
- Nasdaq Composite fell 1.01% to 23,353.77
- S&P 500 dropped 0.49%
Palantir Surge:
Palantir shares jumped over 12% after beating earnings expectations and providing aggressive 2026 revenue guidance of 60% growth.
PayPal Crash:
PayPal plummeted nearly 18% to 20% following disappointing results and guidance, wiping out months of gains in a single session.
Nvidia Weakness:
Nvidia shares slipped 2.13% to 3% amid reports that OpenAI is seeking hardware alternatives to the company's chips.
Eastern Europe: The Energy "Weaponization of Winter"
Critical Infrastructure Under Extreme Conditions
The energy situation in Ukraine and Moldova remains precarious as temperatures drop toward -30°C.
Grid Failures:
A "technological malfunction" on cross-border lines between Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine triggered cascading blackouts that suspended Kyiv's metro and disrupted water supplies.
Restoration Efforts:
While power has been restored to critical infrastructure, households in regions like Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk remain without electricity due to previous strikes and ice buildup on lines.
Fragile Pause:
President Trump stated that Vladimir Putin agreed to a temporary pause in strikes on Kyiv for humanitarian relief, though President Zelenskyy expressed skepticism due to continued attacks on logistics networks. The EU has deployed an additional 947 generators to support hospitals and shelters.
Cybersecurity: SSO Vulnerabilities and Mass Data Leaks
ShinyHunters Campaign Continues
The threat actor group "ShinyHunters" has continued its campaign against high-profile enterprise infrastructure using "vishing" and SSO exploitation.
Panera Bread:
A breach affecting 5.1 million accounts (initially reported as 14 million) has been confirmed. The data includes contact information, names, and purchase details.
Match Group (Hinge, OkCupid):
The group reportedly gained access via "vishing" internal Okta single-sign-on (SSO) credentials. While 10 million records were allegedly taken, Match Group has found no evidence that private messages or financial data were accessed.
Under Armour:
The company is facing a class-action lawsuit alleging negligence in protecting 72 million customer records following the November 2025 Everest ransomware incident.
Systemic Failure:
The repeated success of vishing-led SSO breaches at Match and Panera indicates a systemic failure in current enterprise identity perimeters that will likely necessitate a rapid adoption of hardware-based authentication.
Professional Synthesis and Strategic Conclusions
February 3, 2026, marks a day of extreme divergence. The India–U.S. trade deal has acted as a primary engine for regional economic euphoria, effectively decoupling Indian market performance from the tech-led valuation pullback in New York. However, the high degree of parliamentary friction in India suggests that legislative consensus on broader reforms may remain elusive.
Key Risks for the Week:
- Scheduled humanitarian talks in Abu Dhabi
- Integrity of the energy "truce" in Eastern Europe as temperatures reach extreme lows
- Systemic cybersecurity vulnerabilities in SSO infrastructure
For global stakeholders, the primary risk for the remainder of the week is the scheduled humanitarian talks in Abu Dhabi and the integrity of the energy "truce" in Eastern Europe as temperatures reach extreme lows. In the digital domain, the repeated success of vishing-led SSO breaches at Match and Panera indicates a systemic failure in current enterprise identity perimeters that will likely necessitate a rapid adoption of hardware-based authentication.
Summary of Global Benchmarks (Feb 3, 2026)
| Region / Asset | Benchmark Value | % Change (Day) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex (India) | 83,739.13 | +2.54% | India–U.S. Trade Deal |
| NSE Nifty 50 | 25,727.55 | +2.55% | Tariff Cuts to 18% |
| Nasdaq 100 (U.S.) | 23,353.77 | -1.01% | Rotation out of AI/Tech |
| DAX 40 (Germany) | 24,784.92 | +1.00% | Commodity Stabilization |
| FTSE 100 (U.K.) | 10,341.56 | +1.15% | Mining Stock Rebound |
| Gold (Spot) | $4,837.16 | +3.70% | Technical Rebound |
| Silver (Spot) | $82.74 | +8.00% | Rebound after 30% Crash |
| Brent Crude | $65.49 | -0.80% | U.S.–Iran Diplomacy |