Executive Overview
The global landscape on February 4, 2026, is characterized by an acute divergence between sectoral performances and a deepening of domestic political and infrastructure crises. While the euphoria from the India–U.S. trade agreement has provided a floor for benchmark indices, it has been countered by a systemic "confidence break" in the technology sector, triggered by rapid advancements in autonomous AI agents.
Simultaneously, the political atmosphere in New Delhi and Maharashtra has reached a state of strategic gridlock, while Eastern Europe faces a worsening humanitarian emergency as temperatures drop to record lows amid renewed strikes on critical energy infrastructure.
Technology Disruption Crisis:
The Nifty IT index crashed 5.87%, marking its steepest fall in six years, as Anthropic's agentic AI workflow automation tools threatened traditional software and outsourcing business models.
Indian Equity Markets: Marginal Gains Amid an IT Rout
Benchmark Performance and Sectoral Divergence
On Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the Indian stock market ended a volatile session with modest gains, as a severe sell-off in blue-chip information technology (IT) stocks capped the rally fueled by the India–U.S. trade deal.
The BSE Sensex ended 78.56 points, or 0.09%, higher at 83,817.69, while the NSE Nifty 50 settled 48.45 points higher at 25,776. Despite the narrow benchmark movement, the broader market showed resilience, with mid-cap and small-cap indices outperforming their large-cap counterparts as value buying emerged in non-tech segments.
| Index / Stock | Feb 3 Close | Feb 4 Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex | 83,739.13 | 83,817.69 | +78.56 | +0.09% |
| NSE Nifty 50 | 25,727.55 | 25,776.00 | +48.45 | +0.19% |
| Nifty IT Index | 37,294.51 | 35,109.51 | -2,185.00 | -5.87% |
| Trent | — | — | +5.18% | Top Gainer |
| Infosys | — | — | -7.37% | Sector Laggard |
| TCS | — | — | -7.00% | Heavyweight Drag |
The "Anthropic Effect" on IT Services
The primary driver of the volatility was a nearly 6% crash in the Nifty IT index, marking its steepest fall in six years. This decline was triggered by the global rollout of Anthropic's new "agentic AI" workflow automation tools, which are perceived as a direct threat to traditional software and outsourcing business models.
Major IT Laggards:
- Infosys fell 7.37%
- TCS dropped 7.00%
- HCL Tech declined significantly
- Investors repriced future of IT services in automated ecosystem
Technology and Innovation: The Agentic Shift
February 4 Milestone
February 4 marked a significant milestone in the evolution of software development and legal technology, which reverberated across global equity markets.
Apple Xcode 26.3 and AI Autonomy
Apple released Xcode 26.3, which integrates native support for Anthropic's Claude Agent and OpenAI's Codex. Unlike previous versions that offered simple code completion, these agents can now work autonomously across multiple files, explore project architectures, and use "visual verification" to fix UI layouts in SwiftUI.
Safety Features:
The update includes "automatic milestones," allowing developers to instantly roll back if an AI agent makes incorrect changes.
Infrastructure Impact:
This release, combined with Anthropic's new legal and compliance plugins, triggered a combined $285 billion rout across software and legal tech stocks globally, including Thomson Reuters and RELX.
Parliamentary Volatility: Ruckus and Maiden Speeches
Continued Gridlock in Lok Sabha
The Indian Parliament remained in a state of high tension on February 4 as the government and Opposition continued to clash over national security and trade policies. The Lok Sabha was paralyzed for the second consecutive day following the suspension of eight Opposition MPs for "unruly behavior".
Speaker's Appeal:
Speaker Om Birla urged members to reflect on their actions as constant sloganeering prevented the House from transacting significant business.
Trade Deal Defense:
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal addressed both Houses, maintaining that the India–U.S. trade deal successfully protected the interests of the domestic agriculture and dairy sectors, a claim the Opposition labeled "propaganda".
Kamal Haasan's Maiden Speech
In the Rajya Sabha, actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan delivered his maiden speech. He emphasized that "the children are watching" and called for a progressive democracy that "should never roll over people". His remarks focused on the preservation of language and culture within the union of states.
Key Message:
"The children are watching" - A call for progressive democracy and preservation of linguistic and cultural diversity.
Maharashtra Politics: The Pawar Faction Pivot
Political Transition Enters Confrontational Phase
In Maharashtra, the political transition following Ajit Pawar's death has entered a more confrontational phase regarding the potential merger of NCP factions.
Sharad Pawar's Strategic Stance
Speaking from Baramati on February 4, NCP (SP) head Sharad Pawar dismissed Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis's comments on the merger talks, stating that Fadnavis was not a party to the discussions and therefore had "no right to comment" on them.
Blessings for Sunetra:
Pawar stated he was "happy and satisfied" that Sunetra Pawar had the opportunity to serve as Deputy CM, though he claimed he was neither consulted nor informed prior to her swearing-in.
Merger Roadblock:
The process of reunification now faces significant "roadblocks" due to the sudden elevation of Sunetra Pawar and the ongoing leadership struggles within the Mahayuti coalition.
Eastern Europe: "Weaponizing Winter" in Kharkiv
Humanitarian Emergency Escalates
The energy crisis in Ukraine and Moldova has transitioned into a humanitarian emergency as Russia intensified its strikes during the coldest nights of the winter.
Kharkiv Bombardment:
Russian forces bombarded Kharkiv's energy grid for over three hours on February 3 and 4, deliberately targeting infrastructure in sub-zero conditions.
Emergency Measures:
In Kharkiv, authorities were forced to drain the heating systems of 820 residential buildings to prevent pipe bursts as temperatures plummeted to -25°C.
End of the Truce:
The fragile "energy truce" has effectively ended, with Deputy Energy Minister Artem Nekrasov confirming widespread outages across Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Cherkasy.
Global Markets and Commodities: The Bullion Rebound
Rotation Away from Growth Assets
Global financial markets on February 4 showed a clear rotation away from growth assets toward defensive commodities.
Precious Metals Recovery
Gold and silver continued their technical recovery after the historic liquidation event seen late last week.
Gold:
- Climbed back above $5,000 level
- Spot: $5,044.74
- +2.20% gain
- Safe-haven demand after US-Iran drone incident
Silver:
- Jumped nearly 5.4%
- Trading near $87/oz globally
- +2.10% daily gain
- Alternative to volatile tech sector
US Equity Trends
Wall Street remained mixed as investors awaited Alphabet's earnings. Tech stocks continued to lag following disappointing guidance from AMD, which fell 16% despite a quarterly beat, as investors questioned the sustainability of AI-related hardware demand.
AMD Guidance Shock:
AMD fell 16% despite beating quarterly expectations, as investors questioned the sustainability of AI-related hardware demand in the age of autonomous agents.
Professional Synthesis and Strategic Conclusions
The February 4 nexus highlights the "confidence break" that occurs when rapid technological disruption meets stretched equity valuations. The collapse of the Indian IT index and the volatility in U.S. chipmakers suggest that markets are no longer willing to reward "AI potential" without proof of business model immunity to autonomous automation.
Geopolitical Assessment:
The end of the energy "lull" in Eastern Europe confirms that temporary pauses in kinetic warfare are increasingly used for military repositioning rather than humanitarian resolution.
72-Hour Priority:
- RBI's monetary policy decision on February 6
- Potential for a "hawkish pause"
- Impact on Indian rupee recovery
- Domestic equity sentiment implications
Summary of Global Benchmarks (Feb 4, 2026)
| Region / Asset | Benchmark Value | % Change (Day) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex (India) | 83,817.69 | +0.09% | FII Buying vs IT Rout |
| Nifty IT (India) | 35,109.51 | -5.87% | Anthropic Agentic AI Tools |
| Nasdaq 100 (US) | ~23,200.00 | -1.20% | AMD Guidance / Tech Rotation |
| Gold (Spot) | $5,044.74 | +2.20% | Safe-Haven / Geopolitics |
| Silver (Spot) | $86.92 | +2.10% | Technical Rebound |
| Brent Crude | $67.67 | +0.50% | U.S.–Iran Drone Incident |
| Bitcoin | ~$78,500.00 | +0.60% | Stabilization |